OK mariomike it's all your fault for getting my hopes up :
Latest news
SEPT. 18, 2020
Joe Biden’s lead in national polls has narrowed to 7 percentage points, but he remains favored to win the election because we have a number of high-quality state polls that contain mostly good news for him. States like Minnesota, Arizona and Wisconsin show particularly strong numbers for Biden; however, don’t count President Trump out. He may be the underdog, but he still has a roughly one-in-four chance of pulling off an upset, and in states like Florida and North Carolina, he’s managed to narrow the gap considerably.
We’ve launched our Senate forecast, and according to our model, Democrats are slight favorites to regain control. Democrats have strong pick-up opportunities in the Arizona special election as well as in the Colorado, North Carolina and Maine races. But remember, taking back the Senate is likely a heavier lift for Democrats than taking back the presidency. That’s because a solid but not overwhelming margin in the presidential race could mean Democrats still come up short. The national environment is good for Democrats this year, but it isn’t on par with what we saw in 2018.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/