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All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

Brad Sallows

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Waiting to see if people can connect the dots and realize that minor, if antisocial, activity can lead to a lethal use of force and think about whether chains of events that lead to unnecessary deaths can't be broken sooner.  I don't mean the police, and I don't mean that every citizen has to overlook every infraction and insult, but there is a spectrum from "enforce nothing" to "enforce everything".
 

macarena

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OceanBonfire said:
Nearly 5,000 U.S. citizens tried to enter Canada for shopping, recreation amid pandemic: CBSA

Hi, mates!
I clap to Canada authorities for having take such security mesures in order to protect its people.  :cdnsalute:
I've been following the numbers for Canada, and I am glad to say that Canada and Portugal are providing more security and health to the people, than Brazil and USA.
 

Edward Campbell

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Weinie said:
Hope to be proved wrong, but feel like this the tip of the iceberg for these and similar type of activities, especially if there is a second wave. I notice a significant amount of tension/unease in my day to day dealings with people that didn't exist 4 months ago. I fear for the ramifications if the economic, social, and psychological situations (in many cases inter-dependent) do not stabilize.


I observed some of that yesterday, here in Ottawa, in a building ~ most people, including me, properly masked, but a few seeming rather defiantly unmaskd and rudely refusing the mall (unofficial) security staff's (polite) request to "please put on a mask in the public area."

Same place: the lady at the drugstore counter refused to check out an unmasked customer who then walked out with (the saleslady guessed) $25 to $50 worth of merchandise.

I cannot remember this sort of conduct in my middle-income neighbourhood, ever, and I've lived here for 20+ years.
 

reveng

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E.R. Campbell said:
I observed some of that yesterday, here in Ottawa, in a building ~ most people, including me, properly masked, but a few seeming rather defiantly unmasked and rudely refusing the mall (unofficial) security staff's (polite) request to "please put on a mask in the public area."

Same place: the lady at the drugstore counter refused to check out an unmasked customer who then walked out with (the saleslady guessed) $25 to $50 worth of merchandise.

I cannot remember this sort of conduct in my middle-income neighbourhood, ever, and I've lived here for 20+ years.

I witnessed something similar at Billings Bridge in Ottawa. What concerns me most, is that things aren't really that bad yet. Money is still flowing. What happens when the taps shut off and austerity measures kick in?
 

CBH99

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FJAG said:
I say again: Maybe ... maybe deep down ... maybe deep down we're a really stupid species.

:whistle:


I agree with the other poster.  I think you hit the nail on the head.


I'm in Edmonton, and honestly life here has pretty much gone back to normal.  There aren't any mandatory masks, restaurants just have clear plastic barriers between the tables - or seat people apart from each other.  Gyms are open.  Malls are open, although quite a few stores apparently went out of business.

Overall, life is pretty much back to normal. 
 

suffolkowner

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lenaitch said:
Store staff can, but there is an obvious general reluctance for many of them to confront a customer (which they desperately need) who is determined to make an issue of it.  We don't hear about the incidents where they are asked to don a mask - perhaps even given one - and readily and quietly comply.  There is longer social acceptance of smoking laws, which did not arise instantly.  There are folks out there who are quite willing to push the issue and I'm not surprised low-paid retail workers are reluctant to do law enforcement.  From today's news, some are producing fake 'mask exemption cards':

https://kitchener.ctvnews.ca/public-health-unit-warning-of-fake-face-mask-exemption-cards-1.5025497

It may well be different in urban areas with a reasonably-sized bylaw enforcement staff, but many of the resort areas in Ontario with beaches and other sites that attract crowds are in small municipalities with enforcement staff of perhaps one or two, and are policed by the OPP who are not typically empowered to enforce bylaws unless it is part of the contract (which most are not).

I'm not that familiar with bylaw enforcement, but in order to write a Provincial Offence Notice (ticket) there needs to be an approved offence wording and set fine.  In normal times, that process takes time; I imagine during these 'unprecedented times', it's no better.  Without the ability to write an offence notice, enforcement has to be done via summons, which is a cumbersome process.  I don't know why the police you saw were "driving by" apparently obvious violations.  Perhaps they are taking the position that they want a complaint from the property owner.  Education and voluntary compliance should be to goal, not hanging paper.

Lenaitch

Why is this a bylaw thing though? Bylaw enforcement is just a cash grab by municipalities and has little to due with the law/justice/social order. It's obvious a lot of people are stressed more than usual which I find a little surprising considering how much time young people are on their phones, I would have thought they would have handled the social distancing well. Although perhaps it is not the young people that are having the greatest difficulty. It's interesting that my experiences seem to differ so much from others. I go into a store 99% of the customers are masked and maybe 65% of the staff.
 

Humphrey Bogart

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This is where Sweden's strategy of making everything a suggestion rather than arbitrarily forcing compliance down peoples throats is a better and more sustainable strategy in the long term.

Many people don't trust the Government, the Government has been disjointed and inconsistent in its messaging throughout this crisis. 

As for younger people being stressed, none of us are stressed, I can assure you.  The only ones who are stressed are boomers.  My parents spend every single minute of their lives worrying about COVID, masks, etc.  They are at an age where this disease would most certainly kill them if they were infected, particularly my Father who hasn't lived the healthiest of lives.
 

BeyondTheNow

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Humphrey Bogart said:
This is where Sweden's strategy of making everything a suggestion rather than arbitrarily forcing compliance down peoples throats is a better and more sustainable strategy in the long term.

Many people don't trust the Government, the Government has been disjointed and inconsistent in its messaging throughout this crisis. 

As for younger people being stressed, none of us are stressed, I can assure you.  The only ones who are stressed are boomers.  My parents spend every single minute of their lives worrying about COVID, masks, etc.  They are at an age where this disease would most certainly kill them if they were infected, particularly my Father who hasn't lived the healthiest of lives.

That solely depends on personal preference. Some people simply don’t like being told what to do, period. And Sweden’s stats and numbers, as mentioned earlier in the thread reflect that sustainability is irrelevant. They are now at par and/or worse off than neighbouring countries who took a firmer approach.

Your assertion that only “boomers” are concerned and absolutely no younger people are stressed is grossly inaccurate, and I can only assume you feel that way based on your geographical location, and/or peer group and/or individual experience, or any combination thereof. In Ontario, while there’s certainly a population of those with a more laissez fair attitude wrt Covid-19 and contracting it, there’s a significant percentage of those (I’ll say 16-30yo) who are still taking it seriously and willingly abiding by the policies stipulated. Don’t get me wrong, they’re not thrilled but they recognize the risks and don’t want to become ill themselves. Are they perhaps not as concerned about it affecting them detrimentally if they catch it? That’s probably more accurate. But to assert that “ none of us are stressed”, is just plain wrong and I’m quite positive that the 20-something yo mbr of my unit who caught it and whose mother passed away from it has a lot to say on the matter too.

Many are still dismissing and/or forgetting the role that geography is playing on just how much one is being affected physically and psychologically. Take a focus group out of Toronto or Calgary and compare it with a focus group of the same size, age and relative demographics out of Cold Lake or Victoria or Halifax, etc and you’ll get a very different consensus of the overall effects and the toll everything has taken on them.

Edit to add: I should say in my part of Ontario...
 

QV

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https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/swedish-covid-expert-says-the-world-still-doesnt-understand

Might be too early to call Sweden a failure, time will tell.
 

Humphrey Bogart

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BeyondTheNow said:
That solely depends on personal preference. Some people simply don’t like being told what to do, period. And Sweden’s stats and numbers, as mentioned earlier in the thread reflect that sustainability is irrelevant. They are now at par and/or worse off than neighbouring countries who took a firmer approach.

Your assertion that only “boomers” are concerned and absolutely no younger people are stressed is grossly inaccurate, and I can only assume you feel that way based on your geographical location, and/or peer group and/or individual experience, or any combination thereof. In Ontario, while there’s certainly a population of those with a more laissez fair attitude wrt Covid-19 and contracting it, there’s a significant percentage of those (I’ll say 16-30yo) who are still taking it seriously and willingly abiding by the policies stipulated. Don’t get me wrong, they’re not thrilled but they recognize the risks and don’t want to become ill themselves. Are they perhaps not as concerned about it affecting them detrimentally if they catch it? That’s probably more accurate. But to assert that “ none of us are stressed”, is just plain wrong and I’m quite positive that the 20-something yo mbr of my unit who caught it and whose mother passed away from it has a lot to say on the matter too.

Many are still dismissing and/or forgetting the role that geography is playing on just how much one is being affected physically and psychologically. Take a focus group out of Toronto or Calgary and compare it with a focus group of the same size, age and relative demographics out of Cold Lake or Victoria or Halifax, etc and you’ll get a very different consensus of the overall effects and the toll everything has taken on them.

I won't disagree with you that Sweden's numbers are worse than it's neighbours but that was always going to be the case with their strategy. They also did better than the UK, France, Belgium, Spain, Italy, etc who all imposed hard lockdowns. That being said, we shall what the outcome is in wave number 2 as to whether their strategy is valid or not.  Their number of hospitalizations is lower than ours now and I have a feeling that long term, they will be better off when looking at this from all factors and social determinants of health.

As for myself, yes some of my views are derived from individual experience but I also read a lot.  I try and remain objective and if you must know, I own multiple masks and wear them at work (because we have to even though a lot of times it makes little sense to do so) and out of respect for others. 

I have some friends that are deathly afraid of COVID, I wear a mask around them out of respect for them even though I think their fears are often greatly exaggerated. 

As for people dying, it's a part of life. We are all going to die someday and someone somewhere is dying right now.  Maybe it's COVID that kills them or maybe it's something else.  BC is presently going through an opoid crisis that has been made exponentially worse by COVID restrictions.  We have had 189 people die since COVID restrictions were implemented nearly four months ago. 

We had record numbers of people die of drug overdoses in May and June, many times more than number of people who passed away from COVID.  Sometimes, the cure is worse than the disease itself. 

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/most-overdose-deaths-ever-in-b-c-for-second-consecutive-month

That's why I think it's foolish to look at COVID death rate in isolation like so many are doing.  Mass unemployment will lead to drastically shorter lifespans as well.  There are many factors that aren't being considered with our present reactionary measures.

It's a simple case of politics now overtaking basic common sense.  The same people telling us we have to wear masks were also loudly shouting to get out and protest even though anyone with basic math skills and the ability to read a simple graph can see that the protests most definitely triggered the massive spike in COVID cases in the US, especially considering incubation and the fact the virus spreads exponentially.

 

QV

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BeyondTheNow said:

I think there is more to this analysis that only time will tell. 

https://fee.org/articles/why-sweden-succeeded-in-flattening-the-curve-and-new-york-failed/?utm_medium=related_widget

This link shows Sweden is not even in the top 10 worst affected as of June 23rd... https://www.statista.com/chart/21170/coronavirus-death-rate-worldwide/
 
 

BeyondTheNow

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Humphrey Bogart said:
I won't disagree with you that Sweden's numbers are worse than it's neighbours but that was always going to be the case with their strategy. They also did better than the UK, France, Belgium, Spain, Italy, etc who all imposed hard lockdowns. That being said, we shall what the outcome is in wave number 2 as to whether their strategy is valid or not.  Their number of hospitalizations is lower than ours now and I have a feeling that long term, they will be better off when looking at this from all factors and social determinants of health.

As for myself, yes some of my views are derived from individual experience but I also read a lot.  I try and remain objective and if you must know, I own multiple masks and wear them at work (because we have to even though a lot of times it makes little sense to do so) and out of respect for others. 

I have some friends that are deathly afraid of COVID, I wear a mask around them out of respect for them even though I think their fears are often greatly exaggerated. 

As for people dying, it's a part of life. We are all going to die someday and someone somewhere is dying right now.  Maybe it's COVID that kills them or maybe it's something else.  BC is presently going through an opoid crisis that has been made exponentially worse by COVID restrictions.  We have had 189 people die since COVID restrictions were implemented nearly four months ago. 

We had record numbers of people die of drug overdoses in May and June, many times more than number of people who passed away from COVID.  Sometimes, the cure is worse than the disease itself. 

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/most-overdose-deaths-ever-in-b-c-for-second-consecutive-month

That's why I think it's foolish to look at COVID death rate in isolation like so many are doing.  Mass unemployment will lead to drastically shorter lifespans as well.  There are many factors that aren't being considered with our present reactionary measures.

It's a simple case of politics now overtaking basic common sense.  The same people telling us we have to wear masks were also loudly shouting to get out and protest even though anyone with basic math skills and the ability to read a simple graph can see that the protests most definitely triggered the massive spike in COVID cases in the US, especially considering incubation and the fact the virus spreads exponentially.

This is a harsh example, but I can’t help but think of the HIV/AIDS misconceptions, misinformation, etc etc that riddled us with fear and filled everyone with ludicrous ideas of how we could contract it, how it was spread, what to do, what not to do, how to protect ourselves, where it came from, who was going to suffer from it, how it was going to kill those infected and why...

For those of us old enough to recall, looking back now, the advice initially given and info shared was downright insulting, laughable, and incorrect. Much of it was meant to ostracize and divide and discriminate. I was young...under 10. But I still remember several commercials and newscasts of the time. Movies, messages, the ever-present God-fearing folk who said it was a punishment—It was just asinine. Thankfully, as time progressed, further research and study was conducted. Scientists learned more and more and medical advice deviated a lot along the way. We now know that you can’t contract it from kissing, or spread it through contact with a water fountain, and there’s no reason to fear hugging or touching an HIV infected individual. We better know the risks and when/how to protect ourselves, the accurate origins, and so forth.

There are very notable comparisons between the discovery of both viruses, how mankind has reacted to them, and also how the process of science/research and knowledge about them has evolved—has been communicated. Researchers will be studying this for some time and there’s little doubt that recommendations will continue to change.

As well, it needs to be understood that we live in a very different age now, as oppose to the early 80s. Practically everything is about who can get the info out the fastest and to how many. The Information Age has made it much easier to rush the spread of data, facts, opinions, etc, especially when under the scrutiny of panicked individuals. Then, of course, throw in the factors of availability of incomplete and/or incorrect information mixed with global entities who have a reputation of not exactly being forthright, and there was simply no way anything was going to unfold smoothly. Oh, and we also can’t forget the never-ending barrage of conspiracy theorists, extremists (political, religious, etc), those out for their own gain and/or just plain ignorant people. It’s even harder to maintain and monitor the expansion of legitimate data/findings.

One thing I’ve learned/observed (as have you and many others, I’m sure), is that common sense isn’t common—it’s barely regional anymore. We, the collective, can’t police ourselves. We can’t be assured to exact policy together for the greater good, we aren’t able to equally balance the needs of ourselves and others at the same time. We can’t be depended upon to exercise appropriate discretion in order to protect our societies. We’re a disaster. (Individuals or small groups can get buy, but those groups are small and usually don’t stay together for long before corruption or power struggles at some level arise.) So we need clear and concise policies/legislations/laws that are supposed to aid with maintaining social organization and to keep thing running smoothly.

I agree that all of this has become far too politicized, especially south of us. I’m personally not affected by recommendations changing as we move forward. That’s normal when dealing with something for the first time—even more so when on a large scale. But because there are those who are convinced of some nefarious purpose behind conflicting or evolving information, it’s fuel for dissenting attitudes/opinions and further unrest.
 

QV

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Over the last few years I think the trust in our institutions has been damaged to a new low.  Most of that damage is self inflicted.  The internet and social media does not allow MSM to have a monopoly on the "facts" any longer, and that is resulting in some revelations.  This is of course double edged.

In the case of COVID-19, I feel the flip/flop messaging, interjection of identity politics (and politics), and credible reports of data manipulation have further degraded that trust.  And to some, reliance on obviously corrupted (or at least improperly influenced in this situation) orgs like the WHO has damaged our leaders' credibility and ability. 

This helps no one.  And I don't know where we go from here.  Is it simply an election away from correction?  Doubtful. 
 

brihard

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QV said:
I think there is more to this analysis that only time will tell. 

https://fee.org/articles/why-sweden-succeeded-in-flattening-the-curve-and-new-york-failed/?utm_medium=related_widget

This link shows Sweden is not even in the top 10 worst affected as of June 23rd... https://www.statista.com/chart/21170/coronavirus-death-rate-worldwide/

Firstly, that data is three weeks old.

Secondly, it’s not saying what you think it’s saying. That chart limited its data to the ten countries which, three weeks ago, had the greatest number of cases. Then, within those ten, it ranked by fatalities per capita.

Sweden is currently at #7 in the world for fatalities per capita. San Marino and Andorra are both on the list but are minuscule and could be reasonably excluded as too small a sample size for meaningful comparison. That leaves Sweden behind only Belgium, UK, Spain and Italy for per capita death rates. Sweden is worse than the US, Russia, India, and all other countries except those listed above. Their deaths per capita are well over twice ours.

So, if your intent is to suggest that Sweden is ‘doing well’ with their current approach, the  proportion of seeds who are now dead due to COVID suggests otherwise. Interestingly, around that same time - three weeks ago - was when Sweden’s new cases peaked. They appear to have realized their earlier approach was a failure, and to have tried something else.
 

Ralph

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Brihard said:
Firstly, that data is three weeks old.

Secondly, it’s not saying what you think it’s saying. That chart limited its data to the ten countries which, three weeks ago, had the greatest number of cases. Then, within those ten, it ranked by fatalities per capita.

Sweden is currently at #7 in the world for fatalities per capita. San Marino and Andorra are both on the list but are minuscule and could be reasonably excluded as too small a sample size for meaningful comparison. That leaves Sweden behind only Belgium, UK, Spain and Italy for per capita death rates. Sweden is worse than the US, Russia, India, and all other countries except those listed above. Their deaths per capita are well over twice ours.

So, if your intent is to suggest that Sweden is ‘doing well’ with their current approach, the  proportion of seeds who are now dead due to COVID suggests otherwise. Interestingly, around that same time - three weeks ago - was when Sweden’s new cases peaked. They appear to have realized their earlier approach was a failure, and to have tried something else.

I don't want to blow anybody's minds, but only interviewing the guy who came up with Sweden's COVID-19 plan on his thoughts about his plan might be introducing some bias into the conversation...
 

QV

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Brihard said:
Firstly, that data is three weeks old.

Secondly, it’s not saying what you think it’s saying. That chart limited its data to the ten countries which, three weeks ago, had the greatest number of cases. Then, within those ten, it ranked by fatalities per capita.

Sweden is currently at #7 in the world for fatalities per capita. San Marino and Andorra are both on the list but are minuscule and could be reasonably excluded as too small a sample size for meaningful comparison. That leaves Sweden behind only Belgium, UK, Spain and Italy for per capita death rates. Sweden is worse than the US, Russia, India, and all other countries except those listed above. Their deaths per capita are well over twice ours.

So, if your intent is to suggest that Sweden is ‘doing well’ with their current approach, the  proportion of seeds who are now dead due to COVID suggests otherwise. Interestingly, around that same time - three weeks ago - was when Sweden’s new cases peaked. They appear to have realized their earlier approach was a failure, and to have tried something else.

Right, so Sweden despite not locking down is doing better than some countries that did. I'm not taking a position one way or the other. I'm pointing out we shouldn't write off Sweden just yet and only over a longer period of time will we know if Sweden took the better approach overall.   
 

brihard

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QV said:
Right, so Sweden despite not locking down is doing better than some countries that did. I'm not taking a position one way or the other. I'm pointing out we shouldn't write off Sweden just yet and only over a longer period of time will we know if Sweden took the better approach overall. 

The four sizable countries they’re behind- Belgium, UK, Italy and Spain, got slammed early and hard. Italy and Spain were the first western nations to deal with a sizeable outbreak, with little prior knowledge to benefit from. Ultimately they got it under control by clamping down massively. Britain started off with a ‘let it burn through’ approach, which as we all know went poorly. I cannot speak for Belgium.

I would suggest that to be in the seven worst-off countries in the world by per capita deaths doesn’t suggest Sweden acquitted itself well at all. There are close to two hundred countries with lower per capital fatalities. Their early approach, like Britain’s, is a failure.
 

PuckChaser

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Business capacity is still locked down and mask orders everywhere, but there's currently only 4,000 active cases in a population of 37 million spread out over 10 million square KMs. Quebec wasn't properly recording recoveries, numbers across the board are down 80% (see second link).

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/active-coronavirus-cases-in-canada-plummet-as-quebec-changes-recovery-criteria-1.5028586

Active coronavirus cases in Canada plummet as Quebec changes recovery criteria
Jonathan Forani
CTVNews.ca Writer

Published Friday, July 17, 2020 1:24PM EDT

TORONTO -- Without explaining its new criteria, Quebec announced a dramatic rise in the number of “recovered” COVID-19 cases in the province and a new system for measuring them.

A whopping 23,686 people were recorded as newly recovered in Quebec on Friday. The undisclosed new system slashes the number of active cases in Canada by more than 80 per cent.

On Thursday, there were a reported 27,603 active cases across the country, but Friday’s announcement in Quebec brings the total number of active cases in Canada to just 4,058.

The change comes after weeks of Quebec’s recovery figures lagging behind other provinces with active cases still exceeding 25,000. Daily recovery numbers ranged from as low as 49 on Monday, to as high as 156 on Thursday.

There are now just 1,556 active cases in Quebec.

Here's why Quebec's active caseload was so high https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/quebec-covid-19-recovery-rate-skyrockets-after-new-system-implemented-1.5028344

Essentially, Quebec had been unique in not assuming people had recovered from COVID-19 if they weren't in hospital or deceased. Once people tested positive, if there was no further proof of their recovery, their case would still be listed as active.

Starting now, however, "a new algorithm is being applied retroactively" to account for these cases and make it possible to estimate their numbers, the public health agency wrote.

Anyone who has tested positive and who hasn't died or is currently hospitalized will be counted as recovered after a certain period of time, which changes depending on certain factors.

For most people, once 14 days have passed since a positive test, they'll be considered recovered if not hospitalized or deceased. For people considered immunosuppressed, the algorithm will count them as recovered after 21 days. And for people over age 80 or living in long-term care homes, it's 28 days.
 
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