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October 2019: Turkey into Syria to Deal With Kurds

tomahawk6

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Assad invited back into Kurd territory which will probably mean entry to Russian and Iranian forces.

https://www.stripes.com/u-s-allied-kurds-strike-deal-to-bring-assad-s-syrian-troops-back-into-kurdish-areas-1.602928
 

daftandbarmy

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And there's the rub...

'I have established the republic. But today it is not clear whether the form of government is a republic, a dictatorship, or personal rule.'

Mustafa Kemal Ataturk
 

The Bread Guy

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Jarnhamar

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Trump wants to pull Americans out of the middle east so is withdrawing 1000 soldiers from Syria only to turn around and send 2800 soldiers to Saudi Arabia.

:not-again:
 

MarkOttawa

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There is also the potentially very scary matter of US B61 nukes at Incirlik AFB in Turkey--excerpts from major piece (further links at original0:

U.S. Reviewing Options For Pulling Nuclear Bombs Out Of Turkey, Here's How They Might Do It
The rapidly evolving crisis in Syria may prompt the U.S. to finally remove its nuclear stockpile from Turkey, a move that some say is long overdue.

The U.S. government is reportedly examining multiple plans for how it might remove approximately 50 B61 nuclear gravity bombs it keeps in ready storage at the American-operated portion of Turkey's Incirlik Air Base...

The New York Times was the first to report that officials from the U.S. State Department and the U.S. Department of Energy, the latter of which oversees the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile, were reviewing what to do about the B61s at Incirlik. These bombs have been a particularly serious security concern, as the War Zone has highlighted in the past, after U.S.-Turkish relations began to chill following an attempted coup against Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan in 2016. There continue to be completely unfounded conspiracy theories that the U.S. military was directly involved in the abortive putsch, which did involve Turkish Air Force units at Incirlik. There have been calls in Turkey since then for investigations into American military personnel and raids onto the American portions of the base to collect evidence, which you can read about more in this past War Zone piece...

The risks of a larger conflict erupting in Syria, including from inadvertent clashes between the myriad parties present in the region, is extremely high. This, combined with the artillery incident in Kobane and the general worsening of U.S.-Turkish relations, may finally be changing the security calculous with regards to keeping the B61s in Turkey.

The United States has had those weapons forward-deployed at Incirlik since the Cold War as part of a broader nuclear response plan throughout NATO. There are between 150 and 200 total B61s deployed between Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey. Turkey is the only host country that is not part of the alliance's nuclear sharing agreement, which gives the other countries involved access to these weapons, in close coordination with the United States, during a crisis [emphasis added]. So, there are no aircraft actually based in Turkey that could deliver the weapons in a crisis...

It's important to note that there are a number of security measures in place that mitigates the most immediate risks to the B61s, such as someone attempting to steal one and set it off...

While we don't know what courses of action might be under consideration, any option would be a major logistical undertaking, even under the best of circumstances. The most likely plan would be to fly the bombs out as part of what is known as a Prime Nuclear Airlift Force (PNAF) operation using specifically designated U.S. Air Force C-17 Globemaster IIIs and crews trained in the movement of nuclear weapons and who are vetted under the Nuclear Weapons Personnel Reliability Assurance Program, though properly configured and crewed C-130 Hercules and C-5 Galaxy airlifters are also options, if necessary...

For safety and surety reasons, it is also highly unlikely that one aircraft would move all 50 of the bombs, adding to the complexity of the overall operation. It is possible that the U.S. military could fly the weapons to an intermediate location, such as to Aviano Air Base in Italy, which also hosts B61s, before moving them on to a final destination, as well. Unfortunately, many NATO members, even those who host nuclear weapons, are generally reluctant to be involved with them in any way publicly due to domestic political considerations, which could add to the existing complications...

"To fly them out of Incirlik would be to mark the de facto end of the Turkish-American alliance," the [NY Times] story explained. "To keep them there, though, is to perpetuate a nuclear vulnerability that should have been eliminated years ago [emphasis added]."..

It might also prompt new calls within Turkey, which is presently a member of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), to consider developing its own nuclear arsenal...
https%3A%2F%2Fs3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com%2Fthe-drive-cms-content-staging%2Fmessage-editor%252F1571073395725-bombs.jpg

Members of the US Air Force's 62nd Airlift Wing tie down inert B83 nuclear bombs inside a C-17 during a Prime Nuclear Airlift Force inspection in 2009.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/30417/u-s-reviewing-options-for-pulling-nuclear-bombs-out-of-turkey-heres-how-they-might-do-it

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Underway

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Brihard said:
Right. Sanctions against a NATO member. One which holds the Bosphorous strait and the key to the Black Sea. One which is a pretty key piece of real estate for supporting NATO operations in southeastern Europe and the Middle East.


The preamble to the NATO agreement
The Parties to this Treaty reaffirm their faith in the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations and their desire to live in peace with all peoples and all governments.
They are determined to safeguard the freedom, common heritage and civilisation of their peoples, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. They seek to promote stability and well-being in the North Atlantic area.
They are resolved to unite their efforts for collective defence and for the preservation of peace and security. They therefore agree to this North Atlantic Treaty :
The portions in yellow are my arguments.

Essentially my argument for years was that Turkey should not be part of NATO.  They are not democratic and are not required for the security of the North Atlantic area.  Russia is a backwater with a GDP less than Canada's, a massive VD health crisis and a collapsing population. They can easily be contained by the EU even without Turkey's help. 

The Bosphorus and Black Sea are not the strategic panacea that they once were.  Kick Turkey out of NATO. They should have been evicted years ago.

 

daftandbarmy

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Underway said:
The preamble to the NATO agreementThe portions in yellow are my arguments.

Essentially my argument for years was that Turkey should not be part of NATO.  They are not democratic and are not required for the security of the North Atlantic area.  Russia is a backwater with a GDP less than Canada's, a massive VD health crisis and a collapsing population. They can easily be contained by the EU even without Turkey's help. 

The Bosphorus and Black Sea are not the strategic panacea that they once were.  Kick Turkey out of NATO. They should have been evicted years ago.

And not because, for example, they invaded another NATO country in 1974 and still occupy part of it?
 

The Bread Guy

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From someone's who's been there ...
A Newfoundland navy veteran who fought ISIS in Syria fears for Kurdish forces in the region following the withdrawal of U.S. troops.

"ISIS can see what's happening. They can see that there's been a significant shift in the situation with the Americans pulling out," former leading seaman Michael Kennedy told CBC News.

Now Turkey has free rein, he said.

"Turkey and the U.S. have had a very strained relationship over the past year with regards to this, with the Americans being in there helping the Kurds."

After Kennedy retired from the Royal Canadian Navy in 2016, the St. Lawrence native left Canada to join Kurdish forces fighting the terrorist organization in Syria.

"I went over there just to volunteer after seeing what was happening on the ground, and in our own country," he said, mentioning Canadian soldiers Nathan Cirillo and Patrice Vincent, who were killed in, respectively, Ottawa and Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu, Que., both in 2014.

"These things affected my reasoning for going there," said Kennedy.

(...)

Kennedy says the U.S. and its allies have betrayed troops that helped them defeat ISIS in the first place.

"To me it was a large stab in the back for the Kurds because they've been the main ally and ground forces fighting against ISIS since 2014," he said.

"And with the way Turkey handles its business politically, over the course of history dealing with the Kurds, there's full villages been wiped out by the Turkish army. It's upsetting."

( ... )

Kennedy said while he supports his former comrades in spirit, he can't see himself returning to Syria.

"I'm at a different point in my life where I just want some peace," he said. His family has been through a lot, he said, noting the loss of his brother and his own time in the Iraqi prison.

"I don't think right now, at this point, I would ever go back."
 

MilEME09

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daftandbarmy said:
And not because, for example, they invaded another NATO country in 1974 and still occupy part of it?

Kick them out, invoke article 7? Seriously someone explain to me why NATO has not given them the boot, especially after initial signs are showing they deliberately targeted a US position with arty in Syria.
 

PPCLI Guy

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MilEME09 said:
Seriously someone explain to me why NATO has not given them the boot, especially after initial signs are showing they deliberately targeted a US position with arty in Syria.

I did some exhaustive and exhausting research for you...in 15 seconds:

https://www.google.com/search?safe=active&rlz=1C1CHBF_enCA850CA850&sxsrf=ACYBGNTEfidKwOjg1yRJnCbTAjw68Q4SuA%3A1571185848140&ei=uGSmXZyRCInc5gLcv4y4Ag&q=why+should+turkey+be+allowed+to+stay+in+NATO&oq=why+should+turkey+be+allowed+to+stay+in+NATO&gs_l=psy-ab.12...38721.38721..42507...0.2..0.174.174.0j1......0....1..gws-wiz.......0i71._d-av0W1tIo&ved=0ahUKEwiczeqyw5_lAhUJrlkKHdwfAycQ4dUDCAs


Have at 'er and draw your own conclusions.
 

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